What triggers the run
The Sardine Run is driven by temperature, not the calendar. Each austral winter, a band of cold water pushes north along the Eastern Cape coast. When inshore water drops below roughly 21°C, vast shoals of Sardinops sagax move north out of the cooler Agulhas Bank into the warmer Indian Ocean — and the predators follow. Because it's temperature-led, exact timing shifts year to year by a week or two.
Month by month
May — early signals. Cooler currents begin arriving. The first shoals form around East London and the southern Wild Coast. Too early and too unpredictable for most dedicated trips, but the keenest operators start watching the water.
June — the build and the early peak. Through June the migration gathers force along the Wild Coast. By mid-to-late June, Port St Johns sits right in the thick of it, with regular baitball activity, building dolphin numbers and sharks on the scene. This is where serious trips begin.
Late June to mid-July — the peak. This is the window. The greatest concentration of dolphins, sharks, gannets and whales, and the highest baitball frequency. It's also when trips sell out first — book 6–12 months ahead for these dates.
Late July — the tail. Action is still strong but begins moving north and dispersing. Good value if peak weeks are full, with slightly more variability.
August — dispersal. Shoals scatter into the Indian Ocean and the season winds down.
So when should you go?
If you want the highest probability of dramatic baitball action, target late June to mid-July and book early. If you're flexible on budget and willing to trade a little predictability, the June build and late-July tail still deliver excellent diving — dolphins, sharks and whales are along the migration highway throughout, even on quieter baitball days.
Our 2026 expeditions run 10 June – 30 July, positioned across the peak window. See the dated departures →
Why your base location changes the timing
Where you dive from matters as much as when. Port St Johns catches the run earlier and more reliably than the KZN South Coast spots further north, which see the shoals later and more inconsistently. If your dates are fixed, basing yourself in the early corridor improves your odds. We break this down fully in our Port St Johns vs Umkomaas comparison.
A note on weather
No timing guarantees flat seas. The Wild Coast can lose a day or two to weather in any week of the season — which is why we recommend booking the longest expedition your schedule allows. More days on the water is the single best hedge against both weather and the natural unpredictability of the run. More on this in our FAQ.
Ready to lock in your dates? Reserve your 2026 expedition →